20.10.2025 11:00
The workers, employers, and government will meet tomorrow to discuss the "minimum wage" agenda. The meeting, which will address the participation of trade unions, will also determine the process related to minimum wage negotiations. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley, which accurately predicted a 30% increase in the minimum wage last year, forecasts an increase of 20-25% for the minimum wage in 2026.
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The Ministry of Labor and Social Security will reconvene the Tripartite Advisory Board, which it gathered on October 9 with the agenda of "Expanding Union Organization," on Tuesday, October 21 (tomorrow).
WAGE NEGOTIATIONS WILL START IN DECEMBER
The meeting is expected to determine the future of the Minimum Wage Commission, which Türk-İş and Hak-İş announced they would not attend. As in every year, it is anticipated that the Minimum Wage Determination Commission will start wage negotiations in December this year.
As the wage process approaches, employees' expectations have already begun to take shape. Economic conditions and high living costs are strengthening public demands for the minimum wage to exceed the hunger threshold. According to the Turkish Confederation of Trade Unions (Türk-İş) research in September, the hunger threshold, which only covers the food expenses of a family of four, has risen to 27,970 lira. In the same period, the poverty threshold, which includes all basic expenses excluding food, was calculated to be 91,109 lira.
TÜRK-İŞ AND HAK-İŞ WILL NOT ATTEND MEETINGS
Türk-İş General President Ergün Atalay and Hak-İş General President Mahmut Arslan announced that they would not attend the meetings of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, citing that they do not find it fair.
According to the law, the Minimum Wage Determination Commission consists of 15 members, with five representatives each from workers, employers, and the government. One of the members designated by the ministry serves as the chairperson. The commission meets with the participation of at least 10 members, and decisions are made by a majority vote. In the event of a tie, the side of the chairperson is considered to have the majority.
BANKS' NEW MINIMUM WAGE ESTIMATE
International investment banks Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan shared their minimum wage expectations for 2026. Both institutions predict an increase of 20 to 25 percent in wages.
If Morgan Stanley's estimate proves correct, in the scenario of a 20% increase, the minimum wage will rise to 26,524 lira. In the case of a 25% increase, the current wage of 22,104 lira will rise to 27,630 lira.
LAST YEAR'S INCREASE WAS ACCURATELY PREDICTED
Morgan Stanley accurately predicted last year's minimum wage increase for 2025 to be 30%. The bank expects inflation to decrease to 30% by the end of 2025 and to 21% by the end of 2026. If this prediction materializes, the new wage will remain just above the hunger threshold for millions of workers.
On the other hand, many experts pointing to the Medium-Term Program and year-end inflation expectations are also predicting a minimum wage of 26,000 - 27,000 lira.
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