ORSAM Levant Studies Coordinator Orhan explained: Here is the background of the conflicts in Suwayda.

25.07.2025 23:37

The clashes that began between Druze armed groups and Bedouin Arab tribes in Syria's Suwayda province have escalated into a regional crisis due to Israel's military intervention. According to Dr. Oytun Orhan, the Coordinator of Levant Studies at the Middle East Research Center, even if the conflicts come to an end, the fragility in the region and the risk of external intervention persist.

Armed clashes began on July 13 between Bedouin Arabs and some Druze groups in the province of Suwayda, located in southern Syria near the Jordanian border. Syrian security forces that intervened were ambushed. The escalating clashes were halted by a ceasefire, but Druze forces affiliated with Hikmet al-Hecri broke the ceasefire.

The Israeli army, citing the security of the Druze, struck the Syrian presidential complex, the General Staff, and the Ministry of Defense on July 16. Following this development, the Syrian army withdrew from Suwayda, while the Hecri group began to displace Bedouin families and carry out executions. Thousands of tribal fighters from outside came to support the Bedouin Arabs.

The clashes in the region, where hundreds are estimated to have died, ended when the Syrian government began to redeploy security forces in Suwayda on July 19 and ensured that Bedouin and tribal fighters left the city.

ORSAM LEVANT STUDIES COORDINATOR ORHAN: THE RISK FACTOR IS ALWAYS PRESENT

Evaluating the situation, Dr. Oytun Orhan, the ORSAM Levant Studies Coordinator, stated that although the clashes in the region have ended, the risk factor is always present. Orhan said, "Ultimately, there is a government that has experienced a civil war for many years, is still struggling with economic crises, and is trying to unite various armed, civilian, and administrative structures under a single roof. And there are external actors who would want to manipulate these internal vulnerabilities."

Orhan's evaluations regarding the events in Syria are as follows:

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN SYRIA?

"Israel's initial reaction after the revolution was to dismantle Syria's strategic military infrastructure, to eliminate it. On the other hand, it began to make alliance declarations with Syrian minority groups and took steps to support this on the ground. The most important aspect of this policy is the Druze. They live in a geographically close area to Israel, and by establishing a connection through the Druze in Israel, they tried to influence the Druze's political situation and pressured and supported them to make political demands at the local level by supporting their military-political structures formed in the civil war environment."

"DEVELOPMENTS IN SUWAYDA AFFECTED TURKEY'S NATIONAL SECURITY"

Thousands of armed militant fighters, tribal fighters moved towards Suwayda, and thus an internal conflict and events spiraled out of control. However, later, with the mediation of America, a ceasefire agreement was signed between the Israeli and Syrian sides. This was a development that was closely monitored from the perspective of Turkey and, of course, from the perspective of the Syrian government, as it directly affected Turkey's national security.

WHAT DOES ISRAEL REALLY WANT IN SYRIA?

According to Israel's perspective, the Druze would create an autonomous structure in their region, which would serve as an example within the broader context of Syria, especially in the SDF regions, leading Syria to lean towards a structure similar to Iraq and Lebanon and to have a weak central authority. Therefore, Israel's actual aim here was to establish a federal structure throughout Syria through the Druze.

WHAT WAS THE U.S. POSITION?

The U.S. stance became extremely decisive. At this point, we observe a divergence between Israel and the U.S. regarding Syria policy. That is, Israel wants a fragmented Syria, which U.S. Special Representative for Syria Tom Barrack openly admitted. However, they expressed their support for a unified structure, a united Syria. Moreover, information reflected in open sources indicates that there is an increasing reaction from Trump towards Netanyahu and from within the U.S. administration towards the Israeli government. They want to establish an order in the region, but in return, Israel's attacks, including those in Iran, and the recent attack in Syria have disrupted the order that America wants to establish, leading to increasing frustration.

WILL THE SDG, WHICH WANTS A FEDERAL STRUCTURE, BE ABLE TO REACH AN AGREEMENT WITH THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT?

Of course, the recent developments in the context of the Druze, which have been exacerbated by Israeli attacks, will seriously affect the SDG region as well. To be honest, I attribute the developments in Suwayda to the failure of the meeting held a week ago between the SDG and Damascus. With the external support it will receive, it seems that the SDG will consolidate issues such as the Druze, the Arab Alawites, or other armed groups that still have integration problems over time.

WILL THE CEASEFIRE BE PERMANENT?

But it is likely that this ceasefire will be permanent, and even if there are some minor vulnerabilities, it will be lasting, and ultimately, it seems possible for the central government forces to establish their authority here as a legitimate power and a reliable force that will ensure security among all parties.