30.09.2025 12:06
The increase rates for retirement pensions have started to become clear. According to the increase that will be finalized with the inflation data from TÜİK for September, a 6.71% increase is already anticipated for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. According to the Central Bank's forecasts, this rate may exceed 11%. For civil servants and retired civil servants, a decision by the Arbitration Board will result in an 11% increase and a 1000 TL base monthly increase in the first six months of 2026.
With the announcement of the inflation data for September by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), new rates for pension increases will emerge. The increase rates for retirees receiving salaries of 16,881, 17,500, 18,800, and 19,500 TL have become a matter of curiosity.
INCREASE PERIOD FOR SSK, BAĞ-KUR, AND CIVIL SERVANT RETIREES
While SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees receive increases based on the semi-annual inflation figures announced twice a year, civil servants and civil servant retirees benefit from a collective bargaining increase in addition to the inflation difference. This year, as no agreement could be reached between the government and the civil servant side, the Arbitration Board intervened. According to the decision, civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive an increase of 11% in the first 6 months of 2026, 7% in the second 6 months, 5% in the first 6 months of 2027, and 4% in the second 6 months. Additionally, a supplementary payment of 1,000 TL will be made to base salaries in the first 6 months of 2026.
INFLATION RATES AND EXPECTATIONS
According to TÜİK data, inflation was 2.06% in July and 2.04% in August. Economists participating in the AA Finance Inflation Expectation Survey expect the CPI to increase by 2.47% in September.
According to these estimates, the increase rates that will be reflected to retirees are calculated as follows:
- Total inflation: %6.71
- Accumulated inflation difference: %1.63
- 8th term collective agreement: %11
- Total cumulative increase: %12.81
Accordingly, a 6.71% increase is already expected to be reflected in the salaries of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees.
CENTRAL BANK ESTIMATES
According to the Central Bank's year-end inflation forecast, the 6-month inflation rate is projected to be 11.13%. If inflation reaches 24% by the end of the year, the 6-month increase will be 6.29%. If the upper band estimate of 29% is realized, this rate will rise to 10.56%.