13.02.2026 13:01
In the survey published by the Central Bank, market participants' year-end inflation expectation was 24.11%, while the year-end dollar/TL expectation was at the level of 51.0933 TL. The inflation expectation in the previous survey period was 23.23%, while expectations increased in this survey period.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published the results of the January Market Participants Survey conducted with 71 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors and professionals. According to the survey, the year-end inflation expectation has increased.
ANNUAL INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE INCREASED
The participants' current year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectation rose from 23.23% in the previous survey to 24.11% in this period. The CPI expectation for 12 months later decreased from 22.20% to 22.10%, while the expectation for 24 months later increased from 16.94% to 17.11%.
DISTRIBUTION OF EXPECTATIONS FOR 12 AND 24 MONTHS LATER
According to the probability estimates for 12 months later in the February 2026 survey period, it is predicted that the CPI will increase with an average probability of 25.87% in the range of 19.00–20.99, with a probability of 33.08% in the range of 21.00–22.99, and with a probability of 25.70% in the range of 23.00–24.99. Based on point estimates, 43.08% of the participants concentrated their expectations in the range of 21.00–22.99. In the evaluation made for 24 months later, it is predicted that the CPI will increase with a probability of 44.38% in the range of 16.00–18.99. In point estimates, 55.17% of the participants gathered their expectations in this range.
INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS
The participants' expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market increased from 36.43% to 36.95%. The policy interest rate expectation for the March Monetary Policy Committee meeting was recorded as 36.08%. The year-end dollar/TL expectation decreased from 51.17 TL to 51.09 TL, while the exchange rate expectation for 12 months later increased from 51.89 TL to 52.39 TL.
GROWTH AND 5-YEAR EXPECTATIONS
GDP growth expectations were maintained at 3.9% for 2026 and 4.3% for 2027. In the overall results, 5-year expectations stand out, while market participants do not expect single-digit inflation to be seen within 5 years.