29.07.2025 16:54
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecasts for Turkey for the years 2025 and 2026. In its Global Economic Outlook report, the organization increased its growth forecast for Turkey in 2025 from 2.7% to 3%, and raised the 2026 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3%.
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The IMF published the July issue of the World Economic Outlook Report titled "Global Economy: Weak Resilience in a Continuing Environment of Uncertainty." The report stated that global economic growth is expected to be 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
The report indicated that the growth forecast for the global economy for this year is 0.2 points higher compared to the forecasts published in April, and the 2026 forecast is also noted to be 0.1 points higher.
In the IMF's forecasts published in April, it was projected that the global economy would grow by 2.8% this year and 3% next year.
The report mentioned that the increase in growth forecasts reflects stronger-than-expected demand brought forward due to expectations of high customs duties, lower average tariff rates than announced in April, improvements in financial conditions influenced by the weakening of the US dollar, and fiscal expansions in some major economies.
DOWNWARD RISKS TO THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The report noted that global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, indicating that this trend is in line with the forecasts made in April.
The report stated that inflation is expected to remain above target in the US, while it is anticipated to be more moderate in other major economies.
The report indicated that risks to the economic outlook are downward, and the increase in effective tariff rates could lead to weaker growth.
The report also emphasized that the high level of uncertainty could start to exert more pressure on economic activity.
The report warned that geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and push commodity prices higher, and that larger budget deficits or an increasing tendency to avoid risk could raise long-term interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.
The report expressed that in a positive scenario, global growth could gain momentum if trade negotiations reach a predictable framework and tariffs are reduced.
UPWARD REVISION OF GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY
The report, which also shared the economic growth forecasts of countries, indicated that there has been an upward revision in the growth forecasts for the Turkish economy for this year and next year.
The report stated that the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 3% this year and 3.3% next year.
In the IMF's forecasts from April, it was projected that the Turkish economy would grow by 2.7% this year and 3.2% next year.
UPWARD REVISION IN GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE US AND EU ECONOMIES THIS YEAR
The report noted that the growth expectation for the US economy has been raised from 1.8% to 1.9% for 2025, and the growth forecast for the country’s economy for next year has been increased from 1.7% to 2%.
The report stated that the growth forecast for the Eurozone economy has been raised from 0.8% to 1% for this year, while it has been maintained at 1.2% for 2026.
The report noted that Germany's growth forecast has been increased from 0% to 0.1% for this year and has been kept at 0.9% for next year, while the growth expectation for the French economy has been maintained at 0.6% for this year and 1% for next year.
The report indicated that the growth forecast for the Italian economy has been raised from 0.4% to 0.5% for this year and has been kept at 0.8% for next year, while the growth forecast for the Spanish economy has been maintained at 2.5% for this year and 1.8% for next year.
The IMF's report stated that the growth expectation for the UK economy has been raised from 1.1% to 1.2% for this year, while it has been kept at 1.4% for next year.
The growth forecast for the Japanese economy has also been raised from 0.6% to 0.7% for this year, while it has been lowered from 0.6% to 0.5% for next year.
UPWARD REVISION OF GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE CHINESE ECONOMY
The report noted that the growth expectation for the Chinese economy in the group of emerging markets and developing economies has been raised from 4% to 4.8% for this year and from 4% to 4.2% for next year.
The report stated that the growth forecast for the Indian economy has been raised from 6.2% to 6.4% for this year and from 6.3% to 6.4% for next year, while the growth forecast for the Russian economy has been lowered from 1.5% to 0.9% for this year and raised from 0.9% to 1% for next year.
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