01.09.2025 01:04
A frightening earthquake warning for Ankara has come from Geology Engineer Prof. Dr. Gürol Seyitoğlu. Seyitoğlu pointed out that there are many faults near the city center and stated that if the Eldivan-Elmadağ tectonic wedge moves, an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 to 7 could occur. The expert also issued vital warnings for glass-clad buildings and the Demetevler neighborhood.
Professor Dr. Gürol Seyitoğlu, a faculty member of the Department of Geological Engineering at Ankara University, stated that Ankara is thought to be safe in terms of seismicity, but there are three active faults located close to the city center, defined as the Eldivan-Elmadağ Tectonic Wedge, Abdüsselam Tectonic Wedge, and Beypazarı Blind Thrust Zone. Seyitoğlu drew attention to the fact that these are very close to the North Anatolian Fault, Eskişehir Fault, and Kırıkkale-Erbaa faults, and made striking statements regarding the issue.
"IT CAN CREATE AN EARTHQUAKE OF MAGNITUDE 6.5-7" Professor Dr. Gürol Seyitoğlu emphasized that a possible rupture in the Eldivan-Elmadağ tectonic wedge could create an earthquake of magnitude 6.5-7, stating that urban transformation should primarily start from Demetevler and that glass buildings pose a significant danger.
"WE SEE THAT ELMADAĞ IS CONTINUOUSLY RISING" Professor Dr. Gürol Seyitoğlu noted: "The studies we have conducted so far show us that Ankara is located at the intersection of major faults. The most important of these are found at the junctions of the Kırıkkale-Erbaa fault, Eskişehir fault, and Tuzgölü fault. The area between these three faults is being compressed in the Northwest-Southeast direction. This compression leads to the formation of three fundamental structures around Ankara. One of them is the section we call the Eldivan-Elmadağ Tectonic Wedge. The other is the section we refer to as the Abdüsselam Tectonic Wedge. The other is the section we name the Beypazarı Blind Thrust Zone. According to GPS data, or satellite data, the area where the most significant narrowing occurs in the Northwest Central Anatolia compression zone is the Eldivan-Elmadağ Tectonic Wedge. If we expect a major earthquake around Ankara, we think it could occur in this area. Because the narrowing in this area is 12.5 mm per year. Morphological data, meaning the extraordinary erosion of rivers, also shows that Elmadağ is continuously rising. The exact number of millimeters it has risen is not yet clear in the studies, but most of the narrowing is carried by this Eldivan-Elmadağ Tectonic Wedge. Therefore, if there is going to be a major earthquake around Ankara, we believe it will occur in this area, that is, on the Eldivan-Elmadağ Tectonic Wedge. Paleoseismological studies need to be conducted on this structure to study the earthquake recurrence period.
"WE HAVE OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE CHARACTER OF THE BAĞLICA FAULT" There are also earthquakes close to the Ankara city center that scare us. One of them is the 3.5 magnitude earthquake in Etimesgut that occurred on April 30, 2010. And the most recent earthquake we experienced in Ankara was on August 11, 2025. These earthquakes are located in the area between the Eldivan-Elmadağ Tectonic Wedge and the Abdüsselam Tectonic Wedge. We think these earthquakes are related to the uplift we call Melikşah-İkipınar. The relationship of the Bağlıca fault with this has not yet been clarified, but our studies are ongoing. We have observations about the character of the Bağlıca fault. We are trying to turn it into a scientific article.
If the Eldivan-Elmadağ Tectonic Wedge moves, it is predicted that it could be between 6.5-7. Demetevler immediately comes to my mind. Because we know that the structural stock there is very weak without the need for any study. Therefore, if urban transformation is to begin in Ankara, it should start from there. Also, we have glass-clad skyscrapers that have become very fashionable in recent years in Ankara. Even if these skyscrapers do not collapse, they will create a certain oscillation. I think that oscillation will pose a significant life-threatening danger to the people below the glass-clad surfaces. Necessary precautions need to be considered by construction engineers.
"FUNDING FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IS NECESSARY" Seyitoğlu stated that funding should be allocated for scientific research, saying, "It is unimaginable for scientists to chase after employers to create funding. What should happen is for the state to collect taxes and create a research fund at TÜBİTAK from those taxes. Scientists can then submit their scientific projects to those funds. Those that are deemed appropriate are supported through an objective evaluation. Scientific studies need to be carried out in this way."