A survey on "retirement pensions" that concerns millions: The results are just as expected.

27.10.2025 18:41

According to a survey conducted by Asal Research, 78.9% of citizens argued that the minimum pension in 2026 should be equal to the minimum wage. Meanwhile, 13.6% of the participants opposed this idea, while 7.5% did not express an opinion.

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Asal Research measured public opinion on raising the lowest pension to the minimum wage level in its latest survey conducted between September 12-18, 2025.

79% SAID "IT IS NECESSARY"

According to the research conducted with 2,000 people using the CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) method, 78.9% of participants said "it is necessary," 13.6% said "it is not necessary," and 7.5% responded "I have no opinion/no answer." The results showed that a large majority of the society supports raising pensions to the minimum wage level. Economists evaluate that this demand is particularly related to the rising cost of living and the decrease in purchasing power.

ALL EYES ON THE 2026 INCREASE

With the announcement of the inflation rate for September, the 3-month difference became 7.5%. As the data for the remaining three months (October, November, December) is eagerly awaited, discussions about the increase rate to be applied to pensions have already begun based on year-end forecasts.

3-MONTH INFLATION DIFFERENCE IS 7.5%

With the announcement of the September data by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the first three-month inflation difference for the second half of 2025 became clear. In the three-month period covering July, August, and September, inflation was realized at 7.5%. The final increase rate will be determined with the announcement of the inflation data for the remaining three months (October, November, and December).

3 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE JANUARY 2026 PENSION INCREASE

The increase in pensions will also change according to the inflation rates to be announced in the last quarter of the year.

• If monthly inflation is realized at 1.5%, the 6-month CPI rate will be 12.42%.



• If a monthly inflation of 2% is announced, the increase rate will rise to 14.08%.



• If there is a monthly increase of 2.5%, the increase that retirees will receive will be 15.77%.

These rates will apply to all retirees under SSK, Bağ-Kur, and the Pension Fund (4A, 4B, 4C).

INCREASE ESTIMATE ACCORDING TO YEAR-END INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Year-end inflation estimates are projected to be in the range of 28.5%–30% according to the Central Bank and economic circles. Considering these expectations, it is anticipated that a raise of between 10.14% and 11.43% will be made to SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in January 2026.

2 SCENARIOS FOR THE LOWEST PENSION

The current lowest pension, which is 16,881 TL, could rise to two different levels depending on the year-end inflation:

• In the 10.14% increase scenario, the pension will rise to 18,592 TL.



• In the 11.43% increase scenario, the lowest pension will be 18,810 TL.

It is evaluated that if a welfare share is added to these rates, the increases could be even higher, and the new base salary could exceed 19,000 TL.