10.03.2026 18:11
The U.S. has not been able to get what it wants in Iran so far. Iran's violent retaliations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have complicated President Trump's position. An analysis published in the Wall Street Journal stated that while Iran has not won this war, if the U.S. stops bombing due to rising oil prices, Tehran would emerge victorious from the conflict.
The tension between the US and Iran has caused oil prices to rise rapidly in global markets. According to an analysis published in the Wall Street Journal, Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and its retaliatory actions are limiting President Trump's military options.
THE COST OF WAR HAS CORNERED TRUMP
The US administration is concerned that rising energy costs could harm the domestic economy and the election process. The analysis emphasizes that although Iran does not have the military capability to win a war, if the US halts operations due to economic pressures, Tehran would achieve a strategic victory.
OIL PRICES COULD HELP IRAN WIN THE WAR
If rising oil prices force Washington to back down, it is stated that Iran would emerge victorious by increasing its regional influence and strengthening its "resistance" image.
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
The Strait of Hormuz is considered the most critical and sensitive "jugular vein" of global energy security; approximately one-third of the world's oil transported by sea and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this narrow waterway. This strait, located between Oman and Iran, with its narrowest point being about 33 kilometers, is a challenging alternative that connects major oil producers in the Persian Gulf to the open seas.
During periods of escalating regional tensions, even the possibility of closing the strait causes a wave of panic in global energy markets and leads to a rapid increase in prices, making control and navigation security over Hormuz a geopolitical issue that directly affects not only the regional countries but the entire world economy.
US-ISRAEL ATTACKS ON IRAN
While negotiations between Tehran and Washington are ongoing, Israel and the US launched a military attack on Iran on February 28. Iran responded with attacks on targets it identified in several regional countries, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain, where US bases are located, in addition to Israel.
In the US-Israel attacks, many high-ranking officials, including Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed. According to Iranian officials, 1,332 people lost their lives in the US-Israel attacks.