12.02.2025 09:53
In global markets, a mixed trend has emerged following U.S. President Donald Trump's decisions on tariffs and statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that they will remain cautious regarding interest rate cuts. Attention is now focused on the inflation and Fed data to be released today in the United States.
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While the inflation-recession dilemma continues globally, U.S. President Trump's tariff decisions are affecting market directions. Trump's signing of the executive order imposing a 25% customs duty on steel and aluminum imports, in addition to tariffs on significant trade partners of the U.S., raises concerns that "trade wars" may escalate.
EYES ON U.S. INFLATION DATA
Concerns that President Trump's decisions may increase inflationary pressures in the U.S. and that the Fed, which has made significant progress in combating inflation so far, may narrow its policy space in the upcoming period also emerge as another factor complicating pricing. Meanwhile, the inflation data to be released in the U.S. today and the signals to be obtained from Fed Chairman Powell's presentation to the House Financial Services Committee are being closely monitored. Clues regarding the Fed's projections will be sought in the inflation data.
On the other hand, Fed Chairman Powell began his presentation of the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, prepared twice a year, to the U.S. Congress yesterday. On the first day of his presentation, Powell, who attended a session held in the U.S. Senate's Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, stated that the U.S. economy is generally strong and that significant progress has been made in line with the bank's goals over the past two years.
"INFLATION IS STILL HIGH"
Powell noted that labor market conditions have cooled but remain solid, stating that inflation is very close to the long-term 2% target but still remains somewhat high. Reminding that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the policy interest rate by 100 basis points since September of last year, Powell explained that adjusting the policy stance in this way is appropriate in light of the progress made in reducing inflation and the cooling of the labor market, and that they continue to reduce securities holdings.
Powell said, "There is no need to rush to adjust our policy stance, as it is now significantly less restrictive compared to before, and the economy continues to remain strong."
PULLBACK IN GOLD
With global uncertainties and concerns that trade wars may deepen increasing demand for safe-haven assets, the price of gold, which has been breaking records, retreated from its peak of $2,943 yesterday to stabilize at $2,898. Currently, the price of gold is trading at $2,886, down 0.4%. The price of Brent crude oil is also being sold at $76.5, 0.3% below the previous close. In the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, while the S&P 500 index remained flat, the Nasdaq index fell by 0.36%. The Dow Jones index, on the other hand, rose by 0.28%. In the U.S., index futures contracts started the new day with mixed movements.
WARNING OF RETALIATION TO THE U.S.
While a positive trend was prominent in European stock markets yesterday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that there would be a strong response to the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Von der Leyen stated that tariffs are negative for businesses and even more negative for consumers, and that the EU will take action to protect its economic interests.
DATA TO BE MONITORED
On the other hand, the first contact between the EU and the Trump administration was established at the Artificial Intelligence Summit held in Paris, the capital of France. Leyen and U.S. Vice President James David Vance held a meeting. The first part of the meeting, which was open to the press, conveyed optimistic messages. Analysts noted that the data agenda domestically would be calm today, while inflation in the U.S. and Fed Chairman Powell's statements would be monitored abroad, stating that technically, the BIST 100 index has support at 9,800 and 9,750 points, and resistance at 9,950 and 10,000 levels.
The data to be monitored in the markets today is as follows:
15:00 U.S., weekly mortgage applications
16:30 U.S., January annual average hourly earnings
16:30 U.S., January Consumer Price Index (CPI)
18:00 U.S., Fed Chairman Powell's presentation
22:00 U.S., January federal budget balance
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