Netanyahu is cornered! Two scenarios for the Gaza agreement.

The Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's government is facing increasing international pressure to approve the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza, announced on January 15 and expected to come into effect on January 19.

NETANYAHU FACES A DEADLOCK

In parallel with international pressure, Netanyahu is also facing a deadlock that threatens the existence of the ruling coalition. The leader of the far-right Jewish Power Party, who is also the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the leader of the far-right Religious Zionism Party, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, are opposing the agreement. Ben-Gvir describes the agreement as "surrender," while Smotrich sees it as "a disaster for Israel's national security."

THREAT FROM BEN-GVIR

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich want to continue the destructive attacks in Gaza, which are entering their 16th month, as well as achieve their goals of completely occupying Gaza, establishing settlements there, displacing its population, and completely eliminating the Hamas movement. In this context, Ben-Gvir threatened on Thursday evening that he would resign from the government if his party approved the Gaza Agreement. Previously, Ben-Gvir called on Smotrich to submit their resignations from the government together if the agreement was accepted.

MAJORITY TO TOPPLE THE GOVERNMENT

In the Israeli Parliament, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism Party, which has 7 seats, and Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power Party, which has 6 seats, can reach a majority sufficient to topple the government if they cooperate. According to the Israeli political system, the government must have at least 61 members in the 120-seat Parliament to remain in power. Netanyahu's ruling coalition is currently supported by 68 members of Parliament.

LAPID OFFERS SUPPORT TO NETANYAHU

The leader of the main opposition party, Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid Party, promised political support to Prime Minister Netanyahu's government after the far-right Ben-Gvir announced that he would withdraw from the government if the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement came into effect in Gaza. Lapid's Yesh Atid Party is represented in the Parliament with 24 members.

ISRAEL CLAIMS "HAMAS BACKED OUT OF SOME ITEMS"

The scenarios of withdrawal from the government and the collapse of the government in Israel explain Netanyahu's contradictory positions after the announcement of the agreement and the postponement of meetings to approve the agreement. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office claimed that Hamas backed out of some items in the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and accused it of changing the draft, stating, "The Israeli cabinet will not convene until Hamas informs the mediators that it accepts all the items of the agreement."

HAMAS: WE ARE COMMITTED TO THE AGREEMENT

On the other hand, Hamas Political Bureau Member Izzet al-Rashak announced that they are committed to the agreement. In a statement on Hamas's social media account, Rashak said, "Hamas is committed to the ceasefire agreement announced by the mediators."

According to a report by The Times of Israel, the Israeli negotiation team is still discussing the disputes over the ceasefire and prisoner exchange in Gaza in Doha, and it was noted that there are disagreements over the names of the Palestinian prisoners to be released and some details.

NETANYAHU'S PERSUASION EFFORTS

There are reports in the Israeli press that Prime Minister Netanyahu is waiting for the Israeli team negotiating the details of the agreement to return to the country. Similarly, it has been commented that Netanyahu is trying to persuade the far-right coalition partners who threaten to topple the government if the agreement goes through. While it is considered certain that Ben-Gvir has made a firm decision on his position, it is claimed that Netanyahu thinks the survival of the government depends on Smotrich.

The leader of the opposition National Unity Party, Benny Gantz, expressed his satisfaction with the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement reached with Hamas in a post on X. Gantz stated, "As I have said before, the National Unity will clearly support this step, even politically if necessary."

LAPID: DON'T BE SCARED

Following Ben-Gvir's statement against the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza, Lapid said, "I tell Binyamin Netanyahu not to be scared or intimidated; you will receive all the political support you need to make the prisoner exchange agreement."

In a report by Israeli state television KAN, it was stated that the Israeli cabinet would meet on Friday morning to approve the Gaza agreement without clarifying the latest situation between Netanyahu and Smotrich.

TWO SCENARIOS FOR THE APPROVAL OF THE AGREEMENT

1- Only the resignation of Ben-Gvir's party:

If Ben-Gvir resigns alone and Smotrich's party remains in the government, Netanyahu will still have 62 seats. This will allow the government to continue and the agreement to pass despite the opposition of Smotrich's party ministers.

2- Resignation of both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich's parties:

If both parties withdraw together, the government will lose its majority, leading to its collapse. However, observers see this scenario as weak due to the different priorities of the two parties' bases.

While Ben-Gvir's base is focused on reoccupying Gaza, Smotrich's base prioritizes strengthening settlements in the West Bank. There are comments that Netanyahu may try to provide guarantees, such as promoting settlements in the West Bank, to ensure Smotrich's continued presence in the government.

CEASEFIRE AND PRISONER EXCHANGE AGREEMENT

The mediating country Qatar announced on January 15 that an agreement had been reached between Israel and Hamas regarding a ceasefire and prisoner exchange in Gaza. The agreement will come into effect on Sunday, January 19. The ceasefire agreement, which consists of 3 phases, will see the release of 33 Israeli prisoners in the first 42 days.

The agreement also includes comprehensive humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and the return of displaced Palestinians to their regions. The details of the second and third phases will be announced upon the completion of the first phase.