12.02.2026 11:31
While expectations regarding a possible earthquake in Istanbul continue, Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy made striking statements. Üşümezsoy argued that there is not enough energy accumulation for a major earthquake on some fault lines in the Marmara region, drawing attention to the area between Silivri and Kumburgaz.
Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy, who made evaluations regarding the expected possible earthquake in Istanbul, painted a different picture from the scenarios frequently mentioned in the public. Üşümezsoy claimed that there is no energy accumulation at a level that would create a major earthquake in some fault segments within the Sea of Marmara.
Especially drawing attention to the Islands segment, Üşümezsoy stated that risk assessments for this area need to be reconsidered.
Üşümezsoy argued that the Islands line does not carry enough stress to produce a major earthquake, claiming that there is insufficient energy accumulation for an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher in this region.
HE POINTED OUT BETWEEN SILIVRI AND KUMBURGAZ
Focusing on a single point for a possible tremor that could affect Istanbul, Üşümezsoy indicated that attention should be paid to the approximately 25-kilometer line between Silivri and Kumburgaz. Participating in Sözcü's live broadcast, Üşümezsoy stated that this line has been at risk since 2009 and mentioned that an earthquake that could occur here might have a magnitude between 6.0 and 6.5.
THE CLAIM THAT LEFT PEOPLE ASTONISHED
Üşümezsoy asserted that the frequently mentioned "big Istanbul earthquake" scenario in the North Marmara region is no longer valid. He claimed that since the 1999 earthquake, international funds have been provided with the statement "a big earthquake will occur," arguing that these resources have not been used correctly for earthquake preparedness.
Stating that the construction of earthquake-resistant structures falls within the field of engineering, Üşümezsoy expressed that the correct analysis of fault lines is the duty of science. He added that policies cannot be produced based on incorrect fault models.