The countdown for the Fed's July decision has begun: Markets are on alert.

29.07.2025 20:50

The eagerly awaited FED interest rate decision for global markets will be announced on Wednesday, July 30, at 21:00. The steps taken by the American Central Bank during its July meeting could directly impact various investment instruments, from gold prices to the dollar exchange rate, and from cryptocurrencies to stock markets. Experts expect a reduction of 25 basis points.

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The Federal Reserve (FED) will hold its interest rate meeting for July between July 29-30. The decision will be announced on Wednesday, July 30, at 21:00 Turkish time. It is expected that FED Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference that evening and deliver important messages regarding monetary policy.

The FED's interest rate decision directly affects not only the United States but also markets worldwide. Due to its impact on gold prices, the dollar exchange rate, and stock markets, investors are closely monitoring the outcome of this meeting.

WILL THERE BE A RATE CUT?

The decline of core inflation in the U.S. to 2.3% year-on-year in June has increased expectations for a rate cut. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that two rate cuts this year could be appropriate, while Fed Board Member Waller indicated that a cut could be considered in July.

However, St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized that inflation risks persist and argued that caution is necessary. Experts suggest that the FED could implement a 25 basis point cut in July, but Powell's statements will be decisive in clarifying this step. According to experts, even if the FED keeps the rate steady this month, the likelihood of a cut in the September meeting has increased. The messages Powell delivers will be crucial in determining market direction.

TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FROM EXPERTS

NG International Chief Economist James Knightley stated that they do not expect a rate cut this month, suggesting that the Fed could start laying the groundwork for a cut in December. Knightley pointed out the tariff effects that could raise inflation in October and November.

On the other hand, Pantheon Macroeconomics Senior U.S. Economist Oliver Allen thinks differently. Reminding that non-farm employment increased by 150,000 in June, Allen said, "This data is currently not sufficient for the Fed to cut." However, he commented that a potential weakening in the labor market in the coming months could convince the Fed to start cutting rates in September.