07.04.2026 12:30
According to experts, a possible ground operation by the U.S. against Iran could turn into a high-cost and difficult-to-control process due to the country's vast and challenging geography and mountainous terrain; scenarios such as the Strait of Hormuz, southern coasts, and western front pose serious military risks, while Iran's dispersed missile infrastructure and geographical depth increase resilience, and it is also assessed that the U.S. could suffer heavy losses in a potential operation.
The potential ground operation scenarios of the US against Iran present a high-risk and costly military picture due to the country's vast area, mountainous terrain, deserts, and strategic coastline. Experts warn that such an intervention could turn into a process that is difficult to control.
According to an analysis by the UK-based Middle East Eye, Iran's area exceeding 1.4 million square kilometers and its position stretching between the Caspian Sea in the north and the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf in the south complicate any potential invasion significantly. The country has over 390 mountains exceeding 2,000 meters, while peaks over 4,000 meters and Mount Damavand, which is approximately 5,700 meters high, increase the geographical challenges.
THREE CRITICAL SCENARIOS ON THE TABLE
Experts are focusing on three main scenarios for a possible US ground operation. These include the capture of the islands around the Strait of Hormuz, advancing from the southern coastline, and an entry from the west. However, it is stated that each scenario carries serious military and political risks. The possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz puts pressure on Washington, while the control of Iranian islands is also among the discussed options. However, experts indicate that capturing Harg Island, in particular, is not sustainable and that maintaining control would be extremely difficult. Additionally, it is emphasized that cutting off Iran's daily oil exports of approximately 1.5 million barrels could lead to significant fluctuations in the global energy market. Among the 42 islands located in southern Iran, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa islands stand out as geopolitically sensitive areas.
DIFFICULTIES ON THE COASTLINE AND INLAND AREAS
The southern coastline of Iran, which exceeds 1,800 kilometers from the Iraqi border to Pakistan, complicates defense while also creating a significant operational burden for invading forces. Experts state that even a limited coastal operation could quickly escalate into a large-scale conflict. Even if the coastal areas are brought under control, it is expressed that the forces would remain under constant attack and that advancing into the inland areas would be inevitable.
IRAN'S MILITARY DEPTH PROVIDES RESILIENCE
Iran's vast geography and its underground military infrastructure allow the country to continue its operations even under attack. The dispersion of missile launchers across the country and the concealment of drones in underground facilities help Iran maintain its military capacity. Experts point out that Iran can prepare and launch its liquid-fueled missiles thanks to its extensive land advantage.
CRITICISM OF THE US STRATEGY
The analysis highlights that the ultimate goal of the US towards Iran has not become clear. It is stated that despite weeks of airstrikes, the political structure in Iran has not been shaken in a process that was initiated with the aim of regime change. The pressure strategy aimed at forcing the Tehran administration to negotiate has not yielded concrete results so far; rather, it is assessed that it may have pushed the Iranian administration towards a tougher stance.
EMPHASIS ON NATIONALISM
According to experts, a potential invasion could strengthen nationalism in Iran and lead to the country being less inclined to negotiate under foreign intervention. Criticisms regarding the lack of a consistent grand strategy in the US's Iran policy are also noteworthy. While it is mentioned that the goal of regime change has been pushed to the background in a short time, it is expressed that the current approach is based on an expectation of an uprising by the Iranian people rather than a planned strategy.