28.12.2025 10:45
Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz stated that an earthquake of magnitude 7 to 7.2 in the Marmara region is inevitable, adding that the dense and irregular construction in Istanbul will make intervention more difficult. Tüysüz said, "There is no escaping a 7.2 magnitude earthquake or higher. If a resilient city is not created and the population is not reduced, Istanbul will become unmanageable. We need to avoid increasing the population."
Academy of Sciences member Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz stated that an earthquake of magnitude 7 to 7.2 in the Sea of Marmara is "inevitable," adding that the dense and distorted construction in Istanbul would greatly complicate intervention in a potential disaster scenario. Tüysüz shared the prediction that approximately 80,000 buildings could be destroyed in a severe earthquake in Marmara, warning that "Istanbul would become unmanageable."
While discussions about a possible major earthquake in the Marmara Region continue, experts frequently warn the public about both the condition of the building stock and the scope of urban transformation. Most recently, in an evaluation to Şehriban Kıraç from Nefes, Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz pointed out that the fault segment extending from the Izmit Gulf exit to the islands and the open waters of Büyükçekmece has not yet ruptured.
"IT COULD PRODUCE AN EARTHQUAKE OF 7.2 MAGNITUDE WHEN RUPTURED"
Tüysüz stated that similar magnitude earthquakes could recur in areas that have experienced significant destruction in the past, expressing that if the mentioned segment were to rupture, an earthquake of approximately 7.2 magnitude is expected to occur in Marmara. Tüysüz emphasized that not only the magnitude of the earthquake but also the population density and the nature of the construction it would affect determine the scale of the risk.
"DENSE CONSTRUCTION MAY COMPLICATE INTERVENTION"
Tüysüz noted that the construction in certain districts of Istanbul could hinder search and rescue and intervention processes after an earthquake, stating that narrow streets and dense building fabric pose serious obstacles. He mentioned that in the event of a building collapse, it might not even be possible to re-enter some areas.
Indicating that around 80,000 buildings could be destroyed in a possible Marmara earthquake, Tüysüz said that in such a scenario, Istanbul could be dragged into an "unmanageable" process.
"NOT URBAN TRANSFORMATION, BUT BUILDING TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN DONE"
Tüysüz emphasized that urban transformation should not be limited to merely renewing buildings, stating that the main expectation from transformation is to eliminate distorted construction and to plan the urban fabric in a way that allows it to breathe. He pointed out that streets should be widened, green areas increased, and population density reduced, adding that high-rise buildings could increase the population and exacerbate the risk.
Tüysüz stated that the applications carried out so far have largely been "building-focused" rather than "urban," arguing that while the city's population should be simplified, the density has increased.
Touching on the opening of new residential areas in Istanbul, Tüysüz gave the example of Kanal Istanbul, saying, "If you build Kanal Istanbul, it means 1 million more people will come to Istanbul. You will be adding 1 million more people to the population. In other words, you are pushing people towards disaster with your own hands."