12.12.2025 12:57
The warning that the seismic stress accumulated in the Mediterranean over the past 722 years could lead to a major rupture has caused concern. Earthquake researcher Timuçin Özat claimed that earthquakes of magnitude 8 or higher and tsunamis could occur south of Crete between 2026 and 2029. Özat issued critical warnings for the at-risk regions of Muğla, Antalya, Aydın, and İzmir.
Concerns continue regarding the recent earthquakes occurring in the Mediterranean, while the statements of experts and researchers are being closely monitored.
Timuçin Özat, who has been conducting scientific studies on geological events for 22 years and claims to have predicted 18 earthquakes in terms of location, time, and magnitude, stated that there is a risk of earthquakes over 8 in magnitude and subsequent tsunami risks in the Mediterranean region between 2026 and 2029, particularly on the island of Crete. Özat asserted that many countries, especially the southwestern coasts of Turkey, will be affected.
"MATHEMATICAL PREDICTIONS CAN BE MADE ABOUT EARTHQUAKES" Özat, a 40-year-old student currently studying in the Geology Department after studying Geographic Information Systems, said, "There is no such thing as knowing an earthquake 100%, but with disciplined monitoring of seismic gaps in certain regions with sufficient information, mathematical predictions can be made between 60 and 90%. A margin of error of 15-20% is normal. There is a lot of data, but if I try to explain and write them, it would take a long time and could become complex."
"A 722-YEAR STRESS HAS BUILT UP IN THE MEDITERRANEAN" Özat, who mentioned that one of his most significant predictions was the 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Van (Erciş-Tabanlı) on October 23, 2011, emphasized that he currently expects four earthquakes, the most critical of which is on the island of Crete (Mediterranean). He argued that due to the subduction of the African plate beneath Anatolia, a '722-year stress has accumulated' in the region that has been in a seismic gap since 1303, predicting that between 2026 and 2029, an earthquake of 8.1-8.2 magnitude, with Mercalli intensity reaching 9-10 in places, could occur along the southern line of Crete.
AREAS AT RISK Özat stated that a major earthquake in the region would pose a tsunami risk across the Mediterranean, mentioning that in Turkey, the affected areas include Muğla, Datça, Fethiye, Marmaris, Milas, Bodrum, Ula, Köyceğiz, Ortaca, Dalaman, Seydikemer, and the western part of Antalya, especially Finike, Kaş, and to the east, Alanya, as well as the districts of Kuşadası, Didim, and Söke in Aydın, and the southern parts of İzmir, including Selçuk, Menderes, Seferihisar, Urla, and the coasts of Çeşme. He claimed that tsunami waves could reach the Turkish coasts within 15 to 25 minutes, with wave heights ranging from 2 to 8 meters and a progression distance of 1-2 kilometers in flat areas. Özat noted that he has been following studies in Greece on this matter for years.
"18 OUT OF 23 PREDICTIONS HAVE OCCURRED" Timuçin Özat stated that his interest in geological events dates back to 1999, saying, "I lost my girlfriend in the earthquake on August 17, 1999. I was very affected. After that, there was an earthquake in Bingöl on May 1, 2003, which resulted in 176 deaths. I was very affected by that and wondered why it couldn't be known. I said that while it may not be 100%, some of it can be known, and since that day, I have engaged in serious work. In fact, I was in Ereğli on the Black Sea at that time. Upon the request of the district governor Aziz İnci, I presented a 27-page report I prepared in eight months to him with the press. There is no formula to predict earthquakes; those who say so should not be believed. However, there are some scientific parameters in the literature. There is a mathematical calculation between 60 and 90%. It can be predicted with that. Generally, there is a margin of error of 15-20%. From 2003 to 2025, I made a total of 23 predictions. Location, magnitude, and time must be provided. In this context, 18 out of 23 predictions have occurred. The largest of these was the 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Van on October 23, 2011. Four of the remaining five earthquakes are in the waiting process. I am still working on one of them. One of the four earthquakes I expect will occur on the island of Crete," he said.
"A 9-10 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE WILL OCCUR ON CRETE" Özat argued that between 2026 and 2029, an earthquake with magnitudes between 8.0-8.2, with intensities of 9-10 in places, could occur in the south of Crete, stating, "In May 2025, there were two 6-magnitude earthquakes in the north of Crete. There was a 5.8 magnitude earthquake off Marmaris. These are not even the visible part of the iceberg. There is an African plate here. Scientists say that earthquakes like those in Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines do not occur in Turkey. This is true, but a clarification is needed. Just like the earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Chile, a similar phenomenon will occur only in the Crete region. The African plate is subducting beneath the Aegean and Anatolia. In the mentioned seismic gap, there has been a 722-year stress as of 2025. Scientists have conducted serious studies on this. Between 2026 and 2029, it will reach a magnitude of 8.1 or 8.2. There is a high probability of a 9-10 intensity oscillation on the island of Crete in Greece. It is about 200 kilometers away from us, but this oscillation will create a tsunami effect. The western coasts of Muğla, Aydın, Antalya, and the south of İzmir will be affected by vibrations and tsunami waves. It has occurred seven times in the last two thousand years. This will also affect the coasts of Greece and Turkey, as well as Cyprus, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Italy, Albania, and partially Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Israel. Tsunami waves will reach our shores in 15 to 25 minutes. The speed of the tsunami will exceed 400 kilometers per hour. There are many small islands in front of Turkey. These will break the effect of the tsunami, but even if they do, tsunamis do not behave like storm waves; they exhibit a behavior of rolling, creating a water wall as they approach the shore in bays and gulfs. They will penetrate 1 to 2 kilometers inland in flat areas. The height of the tsunami wave can reach between 2 to 8 meters. For the last 20 years, the preparation phase earthquakes have been occurring. As of now, at least 4-5 earthquakes of 5.0, 5.3, 5.5, and 5.8 will occur in the process between 2026 and 2028 before this main shock. This earthquake will be felt everywhere left in the west of Turkey.
Eğer 8.3 is reached, it may be felt very slightly in Ordu, Giresun, and Trabzon. "It is likely to be felt as far as Zonguldak," he said.
"THERE ARE FAULTS IN TURKEY THAT WILL PRODUCE EARTHQUAKES BETWEEN 6 AND 7.2" Özat noted that some of Istanbul's historical earthquakes have been greatly exaggerated, stating, "There are 476 known active faults in Turkey. The probability of an earthquake above 7.5 on known faults until 2099 is low. 75-80% of the North Anatolian Fault experienced stress in the last century. The Eastern Anatolian Fault experienced significant stress release during the recent Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Most of the Western Anatolia-Aegean faults also experienced stress release in the last century. Very large earthquakes are not expected in areas with stress release. The Yedisu district of Bingöl has not been evacuated. There has been a 241-year stress buildup here. An earthquake is expected in the 2030s. An earthquake between 6.5 and 7.2 is likely. In the near future, there are two potential earthquakes between 6.4 and 7.2 along the Hakkari-Iraq-Iran border. This is part of the process. The ground in Hakkari Yüksekova is generally not good. Additionally, a Japanese expert recently mentioned a 7.9 for Marmara. A 7.9 requires a fault line of 350-400 kilometers. The Sea of Marmara is not that large. The historical earthquakes of Istanbul are also greatly exaggerated. There was an earthquake up to 7.4. There is no 8.0 earthquake in Marmara. After 150-180 years, there will be another earthquake of 7 and 7.2 off the coast of Istanbul. Predictions have started to be revised. The maximum earthquake moment magnitude expected in the vicinity of Istanbul in this century is 6.3, which should certainly be taken seriously. Southern Marmara, the Bandırma area is risky. The area between İvrindi and Edremit Bay in Balıkesir is concerning. There is a possibility of two oscillations of 6.4 and 7; we cannot know the timing. There has been no earthquake of 7.5 in Turkey within this century. There are six earthquakes of 7 in the terrestrial area within this century," he stated.
"TSUNAMI DRILLS SHOULD BE CONDUCTED" Özat, who has 16 years of journalistic experience, emphasized that contrary to popular belief, the Mediterranean ranks second after the Pacific Ocean in terms of tsunami frequency and danger, adding that tsunami drills should be conducted comprehensively. He noted that there have been 92 tsunami records in the Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara, and Black Sea over the last 2,500 years.