21.07.2025 12:40
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) July Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation has decreased to 29.66%, while the dollar/TL forecast has risen to 43.72. The current account deficit expectation has increased to 19.9 billion dollars, and the year-end policy interest rate forecast has been announced as 36.16%.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced the results of the Market Participants Survey for the month of July. According to the survey, the year-end inflation expectation decreased from 29.86% to 29.66%, while expectations for the exchange rate and current account deficit increased.
INFLATION ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
The inflation expectation for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July among economists and finance professionals participating in the survey rose from 1.86% to 2.11% compared to the previous month. However, the year-end CPI increase expectation fell from 29.86% in the previous survey to 29.66%. The inflation expectation for 12 months later decreased from 24.56% to 23.39%, and for 24 months later, it decreased from 17.35% to 17.08%.
EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATION INCREASED
The year-end expectation for the dollar/TL exchange rate increased from 43.57 TL to 43.72 TL, while the expectation for 12 months later rose from 47.03 TL to 47.69 TL. This increase indicates that upward risks in the exchange rate persist.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ESTIMATE INCREASED
The year-end expectation for the current account deficit increased from 18.8 billion dollars to 19.9 billion dollars compared to the previous survey period. The current account deficit expectation for 2026 was set at 25.3 billion dollars.
POLICY INTEREST RATE ESTIMATES
The expectation for the CBRT's policy interest rate for the first meeting was recorded at 43.29%, while this rate was estimated at 40.90% for the second meeting and 38.60% for the third meeting. The year-end policy interest rate expectation is 36.16%, while this rate decreased to 28.25% for 12 months later.
GDP EXPECTATION REMAINED STABLE
The participants' expectations for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remained stable at 2.9% for the current year and 3.7% for the next year.