20.02.2026 13:32
The Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, stated in a live broadcast, "I am seeing this much interest from foreign investors for the first time. We are witnessing significant interest from large investors in Turkey. There is a serious increase in predictability regarding politics in Turkey. Turkey's policies are consistent."
Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek made important statements about the Turkish economy during his appearance on NTV live broadcast.
In his statement, Minister Şimşek used the following expressions: "Turkey's public debt is low. We proved our maturity by quickly achieving budget discipline. Negative statements regarding the political ownership of the program are no longer resonating."
"IT'S STILL EARLY FOR CURRENT SURPLUS"
Turkey has largely solved the current account deficit problem, but it is still early for a current surplus. It is noted that international investor interest in Turkey has significantly increased recently. In January, meetings were held in London, New York, and Hong Kong, where approximately 800 investors were brought together, and it is stated that such a high level of interest was last seen in 2013, when Turkey's credit rating was upgraded to "investment grade."
In January, investor meetings were held first in London, then in New York and Hong Kong. Some of the meetings were held in large conference halls, while others were conducted in groups of 15-20 people. A total of 800 investors were contacted during the program, which spanned about a week and a half. Officials state that similar international contacts were maintained between 2007-2018, but the current level of interest particularly reminds them of the positive credit rating period in 2013.
EMPHASIS ON "STRONG STORY"
Three main reasons stand out in the evaluation of investor interest. The first is that Turkey has a "strong story" among developing countries. It is noted that the number of countries that can present a strong economic narrative globally and in the region where Turkey is located is limited; despite the disinflation process and tight monetary and fiscal policies implemented in Turkey, the resilience of growth is highlighted as a remarkable factor. While it is acknowledged that there are criticisms regarding the real economy, it is emphasized that Turkey's growth performance remains strong, especially compared to its trading partners. It is stated that the ultimate goal of the disinflation program is to increase growth potential in a more sustainable and balanced manner.
GEOPOLITICAL POSITION AND SECURITY DIMENSION
The second reason is the discussions on changes in the global system and security architecture. It is pointed out that interest in medium-sized economies is increasing, and Turkey's position from a security perspective is emphasized. Turkey ranks second within NATO in terms of army size and has long been among the top five countries in terms of effective power. In this context, it is stated that Europe's security cannot be evaluated independently of Turkey, and the geopolitical role of countries like Turkey continues to be important in the new global order. It is noted that interest is also increasing at the sectoral level, particularly in the defense industry.
PREDICTABILITY AND POLICY CONSISTENCY
The third factor is policy consistency and increasing predictability. It is expressed that Turkey has provided a more stable framework in its economic policies for some time, and despite being in a geography with high uncertainties, there has been a significant increase in policy predictability. In this context, it is stated that a resilient economic structure, strong growth according to the current conjuncture, and the regional actor role should be evaluated together.
GREEN TRANSFORMATION, DIGITALIZATION, AND LOGISTICS INITIATIVES
One of the topics attracting investors' interest is the overlap between Turkey's priorities and global trends. Green transformation programs aimed at reducing energy dependence, preparations for artificial intelligence, and digital transformation efforts stand out in this context. It is stated that Turkey is not at the level of developed countries but is ahead of many developing countries. Projects related to logistics infrastructure are also attracting investors' attention. The program aimed at integrating organized industrial zones with ports through railway connections is considered a step that will enhance competitiveness. Regarding the quality of growth, it is shared that more than half of the growth in the first three quarters of last year came from total factor productivity. It is emphasized that this structure means growth that is both sustainable and does not create macroeconomic imbalances.
DEBT RATIOS AND BUDGET BALANCE
Macro indicators are also among the prominent topics in investor presentations. It is noted that the ratio of household debt to national income is approximately 10%, and private sector indebtedness remains low compared to global averages. It is stated that the ratio of the public's gross domestic and external debt stock to national income is below 25%, while this ratio is around 74% in similar countries. Regarding budget discipline, it is reported that despite the financial burden of the major earthquake disaster and the effects of the EYT regulation, the budget deficit ratio to national income decreased to 2.9% last year. It is noted that this ratio is on average 6.3% in developing countries.
QUESTIONS ON INVESTORS' AGENDA
It is expressed that the questions from investors during foreign contacts have changed compared to previous periods. Initially, questions about whether the program would continue were prominent, but it is stated that these discussions are now behind. Speculative statements regarding the political ownership or future of the program have not resonated with international investors. As of today, questions are more focused on the macroeconomic framework, with the outlook of the disinflation process being the most important topic. Additionally, the goal of a "terror-free Turkey," the differences from past initiatives, and why it could succeed this time are also on investors' agenda. Periodically, questions about the new architecture in the global system, Turkey's position within this structure, and Turkey-West relations are raised, but it is noted that the general trend is leaning more towards technical and macroeconomic topics.
"WE SUCCESSFULLY EXITED FROM KKM"
Stating that "we successfully exited from KKM," Şimşek continued his remarks as follows:
"It was the state's obligation. If the exchange rate went up, the public would face obligations, making disinflation difficult. The KKM stock, which reached 143 billion dollars, has largely been eliminated. Preventing inflation from spiraling out of control was our most critical challenge. Disinflation started after the second half of 2024. We ended 2024 with inflation around 44% and 2025 around 30%. The most significant imbalance is currently inflation. We continue to implement the program; it takes time. Returning to the pre-inflation shock period takes 3.4 years. I am talking about real disinflation in our program; it took time to establish monetary policy and ensure discipline in fiscal policy. There are no easy solutions."
"WE MAY FALL BELOW THE AVERAGES OF THE PAST PERIOD IN INFLATION"
Addressing the disinflation process, Şimşek stated, "Fighting inflation is our top priority, and significant progress has been made in other macro issues." He added, "In January and February, seasonal effects led to relatively high figures. There is no deterioration in disinflation here; we can talk about a slowdown. We need to understand the reason. If it is food-related, and if it is high due to last year's drought and this year's winter conditions, we need to interpret this correctly. There is a slowdown due to temporary factors here. Can this be compensated? Yes. We may fall below the averages of the past period in March, April, and May. The rainfall this year is very good. We are in a period with the best rainfall in recent history."
RESPONSE TO THE CLAIM OF HIGH INTEREST PAYMENT IN JANUARY
In response to claims that high interest was paid in January, Minister Şimşek said, "There was a high interest payment in January. But why did it happen? Since 2016, it has been reissued periodically. You are issuing domestic debt securities indexed to inflation. The importance of CPI-indexed papers is that the coupon is not important. For 10 years, you accumulate those inflation differences, and when the maturity comes, you pay them. 53% of the interest payments in January are due to the maturity of a single paper. That paper was issued in 2016, and interest had not been paid for years, coinciding with January. One must be ignorant or ill-intentioned to create a story from this."
"THERE IS NO EASY SOLUTION"
Turkey's risk premium is decreasing. Turkey currently deserves a much higher credit rating. When I mention patience, they criticize that too. But there is no easy solution. There are no shortcut solutions to any country's problems. This program needs to be implemented with patience and determination. Is the program perfect? No, are there shortcomings? We can address them. Along with disinflation, income distribution has also started to improve. The Gini coefficient is improving after 2023. The share of our employees in GDP is increasing.
"THERE IS NO TAX INCREASE ON THE AGENDA"
Regarding whether there will be an increase in taxes, Şimşek stated, "We have no agenda for increasing Corporate Tax, Income Tax, or VAT. We are significantly reducing tax expenditures. Exceptions and advantages must be effective and efficient in terms of economic results. We have talked a lot about fairness in taxation. For the first time in a long time, the ratio of indirect taxes to total taxes has decreased. Along with disinflation, income distribution has also started to improve. There is a GNI coefficient, and for the first time in a long time, there has been an improvement after 2023; income distribution is improving. There are memorized ideas that they continue to perpetuate, but those ideas are not supported by figures. This program has started to yield the desired results."
BAD NEWS FOR TAX EVADERS
Minister Şimşek mentioned that efforts against tax evaders are ongoing without interruption, stating, "We have implemented very serious artificial intelligence algorithms regarding fake invoices. There will be no cases of a two-day company issuing billions of lira in invoices. We have studies similar to a housing valuation map in all cities in Turkey, and we are comparing transactions. We have monitoring programs aimed at high-income groups. My colleagues are working on luxuries such as credit cards, yachts, motorboats, and boats."
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