15.08.2025 21:54
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) August market participants survey, the year-end inflation expectation rose to 29.69%, while the 12-month ahead expectation decreased to 22.84%. The year-end dollar/TL forecast is 43.96, and the 12-month ahead expectation is 48.36.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced the results of the Market Participants Survey for August. The year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation of the participants slightly increased from 29.66% in the previous survey period to 29.69%. The CPI expectation for 12 months later decreased from 23.39% to 22.84%, while the expectation for 24 months later fell from 17.08% to 16.92%.
EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS
The year-end dollar/TL expectation rose from 43.72 TL in the previous survey period to 43.96 TL this month. The exchange rate expectation for 12 months later increased from 47.70 TL to 48.36 TL.
GROWTH FORECAST
The growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remained unchanged in the survey. The forecasts were 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively, as in May.
INTEREST RATE FORECAST
The participants' expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was 43.31% in the previous survey period, while it was 42.85% in this survey period. The expectation for the TCMB policy interest rate for the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting was 40% in this survey period.
SURVEY PARTICIPANTS
A total of 72 participants, 54 from the financial sector and 18 from the real sector, provide their opinions in the Market Participants Survey, which is conducted regularly every month.