11.12.2025 09:50
After the Federal Reserve's 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, profit-taking became effective in the gold market. While the price of gold per ounce fell from $4,228 to $4,215, the price of gold per gram in Turkey started the day at 5,775 TL. Analysts indicate that although there may be fluctuations in the short term, gold could enter a rising trend again in the long term. Wells Fargo predicts that the price of gold per ounce could reach $4,700 by 2026.
The Federal Reserve (FED) lowered the policy interest rate by 0.25 points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. This met market expectations. In the FED's quarterly published dot plot forecasts, members predicted that the interest rate would decrease to 3.4% by the end of 2026. This indicates that there may be one or two more interest rate cuts in the upcoming period.
DOLLAR INDEX AT A SIX-WEEK LOW
Following the interest rate decision, the dollar index quickly declined to 98.60. This level marked the lowest movement in the last six weeks.
PROFIT TAKING IN GOLD
After the decision, gold rose by 0.50% yesterday, closing at $4,228 per ounce. However, a pullback occurred in morning trading, and as of 06:10 GMT, the ounce price dropped to $4,215.
In the Turkish markets:
- December 11, 2025 gram gold: 5,775 TL
- Grand Bazaar gram gold sale: 5,865 TL
- Quarter gold: 9,555 TL
It is noted that profit-taking in gold is effective due to the FED's decision aligning with expectations.
SIGNAL OF "PAUSE" IN JANUARY
Economists stated that delayed data due to the government shutdown would determine the policy direction, saying: "The FED did not provide a clear direction. Therefore, the probability of interest rates remaining stable in January has risen to 78%. This is seen as a short-term brake signal in the FED's easing process."
LONG-TERM UPSIDE EXPECTATION FOR GOLD
Analysts express that the interest rate cut has largely been priced in; however, the possibility of a change in FED leadership, new interest rate cut policies, the weakening of the dollar, and geopolitical risks could lead gold to enter a rising trend again in the long term.
2026 GOLD FORECASTS: $4,700 SCENARIO
The American financial institution Wells Fargo announced a new record expectation for gold prices in 2026. The report highlighted:
- Increased purchases by central banks,
- Decline in the US dollar,
- Additional interest rate cuts from the FED,
- Geopolitical uncertainties, predicting that the ounce of gold could rise to $4,700.