02.01.2026 14:43
As we enter 2026, there are warnings that global tensions may escalate further. According to experts, the military buildup of the United States in the Caribbean Sea, sabotage and airspace tensions in the Gulf of Finland, the risk of Kinmen Islands in the China-Taiwan strait, the potential crisis in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, and the rising tensions around Seoul in the Korean Peninsula are seen as the main "hot spots" that could trigger a major conflict in the new year.
Tensions are rising in the world, with experts warning of a "global conflict risk" for 2026. Military buildups, sabotage claims, and increased activity in strategic straits are being pointed out as "flashpoints for war." According to experts, a decrease in tension is not expected in the new year; on the contrary, some regions carry the risk of "sudden escalation."
CARRIBEAN SEA: US MILITARY BUILDUP DRAWS ATTENTION
The military presence of the US in the Caribbean Sea, with its warships, fighter jets, and strategic bombing elements, is cited as one of the factors increasing tension in the region. According to expert assessments, Washington's buildup on this scale strengthens the possibility of a potential military move.
GULF OF FINLAND: SABOTAGE CLAIMS
The Gulf of Finland, between Finland, Estonia, and Russia, stands out as one of the most critical points for European security. Claims of sabotage against underwater cables, the entry of drones into European airspace, and confrontations between fighter jets are leading to assessments that tension in the region could rise rapidly. Experts suggest that Russia may use "distraction moves" to pressure Europe in order to reduce the pressure from the Ukraine war.
KINMEN ISLANDS: CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN CHINA-TAIWAN TENSION
The Kinmen Islands, near the Chinese coast, are seen as one of the potential conflict areas in the Beijing-Taiwan line. It is suggested that the islands, with a population of about 150,000, could be seized with a "limited military move," which could be brought up to test the international community's reaction. Such a scenario is considered among developments that could push the US's position in the region to a tougher stance.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ: NEW THREAT OVER OIL ROUTE
One of the most critical issues in the Middle East is the Strait of Hormuz. Any potential intervention in the narrow waterway through which a significant portion of global oil shipments pass is considered a risk that could shake not only the regional but also the global economy. Experts point out that Iran may bring up the card of closing the strait or disrupting shipments if tensions with Israel and the West escalate.
SEOUL: KOREAN PENINSULA HEATS UP AGAIN
Messages from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un highlighting military capacity and the rapprochement with Russia are among the factors raising tension on the Korean Peninsula. According to expert comments, the Pyongyang administration feeling more "bold" increases the risk of miscalculation in the region. This situation is causing the possibility of a crisis scenario around Seoul to come back to the agenda.