After the disclosure of critical data, a new scenario emerged beneath it.

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The minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) revealed that Fed officials pointed to inflation risks that could arise from the trade and immigration policies planned by the elected President of the United States, Donald Trump. The Fed published the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 17-18, 2024.

FED: UPSIDE INFLATION RISK HAS INCREASED

The minutes from the last meeting, where the policy interest rate was lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.50%, indicated that upside inflation risks are considered to have increased.

Although Trump's name was not mentioned, the minutes highlighted the potential effects of possible policy changes, stating, "Officials expect inflation to continue moving towards 2%, but recent inflation data has been higher than expected, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy may indicate that the process could take longer than previously anticipated."

"THE DECLINE IN INFLATION MAY HAVE STOPPED"

The minutes noted that some officials observed that the decline in inflation may have temporarily stalled or indicated the existence of such a risk, and several officials assessed that the positive atmosphere in financial markets and the momentum in economic activity could continue to exert upward pressure on inflation.

The minutes indicated that all officials believed there was a high level of uncertainty regarding the scope, timing, and economic effects of possible changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration, and some officials included their assumptions on these issues in their projections.

The minutes stated, "Almost all officials assessed that the upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased. Officials indicated that the FOMC is at or near the point where it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing."

POLICY STANCE DEPENDS ON INFLATION TREND

The minutes of the bank noted that officials stated it would be appropriate to gradually move towards a more neutral policy stance over time, provided that the data comes in as expected, inflation continues to decline sustainably towards the 2% target, and the economy remains close to maximum employment.

The elected President of the United States, Trump, had announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on imports when he took office. The Fed's next meeting will be held on January 28-29.

THE "EDGE OF THE ABYSS SCENARIO" IS LEFT BEHIND

Before the publication of the Fed minutes, there was uncertainty in gold prices. For about a week, the price of gold per gram had been fluctuating around 3,000 TL. There were comments that if there was an improvement in the Fed's inflation forecast, it could break below 3,000 lira, which could represent an edge of the abyss scenario. However, with the Fed's latest data, the relatively pessimistic outlook for inflation is expected to continue for a while longer, which could strengthen the perception that gold, a safe haven in global markets, would benefit. Experts thus commented that a new upward scenario for gold, which has been hovering around 3,000 lira in the domestic market, could begin.

LAST STATUS OF GOLD AFTER FED'S STATEMENTS

The Fed minutes indicated that upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased. In light of these developments, the current status of gold prices is as follows:

SPOT GOLD