31.12.2025 09:20
The eyes are on the inflation data for December, which will be announced by TÜİK on January 5, 2026, for the increase in retirement pensions. With the December data, the rate of the increase that retirees will receive will be finalized. However, if no adjustment is made to the lowest pension, many retirees will continue to receive their current pension. Therefore, it is stated that an adjustment will be made to the lowest pension, raising it to the level of 20,000 lira.
In January 2026, all eyes are on the inflation data for December, which will be announced by TÜİK on January 5, 2026, for the increase in pensions. With this data, the rate of increase that retirees will receive will be finalized.
The inflation difference for the 5-month period from July to November has been determined to be 11.21%. While it is expected that this rate will rise with the December data, general market forecasts indicate that December inflation may occur in the range of 0.70-0.90.
THE INCREASE RATE MAY BE AROUND 12%
According to current calculations, if the December inflation comes in this range, it is estimated that the increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be around 12-13%. The possibility of the December data being announced higher is seen as a low probability.
NEW REGULATION ON THE LOWEST PENSION IS ON THE AGENDA
According to information shared by İsa Karataş in the Türkiye newspaper; some retirees with low base salaries may continue to receive the same salary despite the inflation increase if no new regulation is made on the minimum salary. Therefore, the possibility of a new regulation on the lowest pension has come back to the agenda. In this context, while the level of 18,948 TL for the lowest pension is being discussed, the option of 20,000 TL, seen as a "psychological threshold," is also on the table.
EXPECTATIONS FOR WELFARE SHARE AND FLAT INCREASE ARE WEAK
Due to the tight stance in economic policies, the likelihood of a flat increase does not seem strong at this stage. Similarly, it is stated that there is no clear signal for the welfare share. Therefore, the strongest scenario is that the lowest salary is raised through legal regulation.
THE TABLE WILL BE CLARIFIED ON JANUARY 5
With the announcement of the December inflation data, the pension increase rate will be finalized. It is also expected that the possible regulation regarding the lowest pension will become clear in the same process.