02.03.2026 18:28
As Brent crude oil prices rose following news of war, financial analysts noted that the geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz have a significant impact on global energy prices. Analysts also stated that the developments could have negative effects on the Turkish economy.
Financial analyst Salih Oğuzhan Sever stated that the initial reaction in the markets is directly reflected in energy prices, saying, "The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of geopolitical risk. A significant portion of global oil supply comes from this passage. The possibility of a potential closure or supply disruption will be the main determinant of pricing."
Bulls Investment Domestic Sales Director Evren Çakarer and Bulls Portfolio Financial Analyst Salih Oğuzhan Sever evaluated the effects of the military operation initiated by the US and Israel against Iran on global markets.
"CRITICAL TITLE HORMUZ STRAIT"
Sever said, "The initial reaction in the markets was directly reflected in energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of geopolitical risk. A significant portion of global oil supply comes from this passage. The possibility of a potential closure or supply disruption is the main determinant of pricing. After the news of the war, Brent oil quickly rose from 73 dollars to over 80 dollars, testing 82 dollars. After an increase of up to 7% during the day, prices stabilized in the 77-78 dollar range. Asian markets are trading with a decline of 1-1.5%. US 10-year Treasury yields fell from around 4.10% to 3.96%. Gold rose by over 2%, while the dollar remained stable. A negative opening on the euro front is noteworthy," he said.
"COULD MAKE FIGHTING INFLATION MORE DIFFICULT"
Sever stated, "Energy prices are critical for the Turkish economy. Every 10 dollar increase in oil prices can have a negative impact on inflation of between 0.5 to 1 percentage points. If Brent oil heads towards 100 dollars; the price of diesel could rise to 75 TL, gasoline prices could exceed 70 TL, and the increase in natural gas costs could seriously complicate the fight against inflation. The inflation data for January and February has already come in high. An energy shock could create second-round effects. The reason gold does not react as sharply as oil is that the tension has been somewhat priced in beforehand," he expressed.
CBRT'S LIQUIDITY MOVE
Sever noted, "The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has suspended one-week repo auctions. It announced that it will start TL-settled forward foreign exchange selling transactions. These steps aim to both tighten liquidity and limit exchange rate volatility. If geopolitical tensions do not decrease, fluctuations may continue in the coming days or even weeks. In particular, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, diplomatic messages from the US, and the 81-82 dollar threshold in Brent oil will be decisive for the direction of the markets," he evaluated.
"DIRECTLY AFFECTING TURKEY"
Evren Çakarer stated that the Turkish markets are directly affected by developments due to their geopolitical position, saying, "Turkey's CDS premium has risen to the 234 levels. The opening in the futures markets occurred at over -3%. Intraday fluctuations widened to -3.50%. We see this decline as a 'normal reaction' within the geopolitical context. However, if tensions do not decrease, selling pressure may continue. The 81-82 dollar level is a technical and psychological threshold. If sustainability is achieved above this band, levels of 90 dollars, and if a supply shock from Hormuz occurs, levels of 100 dollars and above could be on the table," he said.
Çakarer added, "After the fluctuations experienced, the economic management and market authorities also intervened. Short selling transactions were banned until March 6. The order/trade ratio was reduced from 5 to 1 to 3 to 1. Short selling was closed. These steps are protective measures aimed at limiting excessive volatility. As long as there is no permanent disruption in energy supply, fluctuations may remain manageable; however, a permanent scenario of 100 dollars in oil prices could reshape both inflation and growth outlook for Turkey," he stated.