28.11.2025 14:40
Finance Expert İslam Memiş announced that he expects only a 20-22% increase in the minimum wage for 2026. If this prediction comes true, the net minimum wage will be approximately 26,966 TL.
Millions of minimum wage earners are waiting for the decision to be made in Ankara regarding the salary that will be valid in 2026. Evaluations from economic circles are coming in one after another ahead of the meeting of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which will be held in December.
ISLAM MEMİŞ HAS ALSO SHARED HIS EXPECTATIONS
Finance Expert Islam Memiş, known for his gold and market analyses, has shared his expectations for the 2026 minimum wage increase. Memiş stated that he predicts the increase to be in the range of 20 to 22 percent for the new year. He also mentioned that he does not expect any additional adjustments outside of this rate.
ALL CALCULATIONS POINT TO THIS FIGURE
If Memiş's 22% prediction comes true, the net minimum wage is expected to rise to 26,966 TL. However, this figure falls significantly short of the expectations of workers due to high inflation and rising living costs. According to experts, considering the losses in purchasing power, a raise in the range of 20-22% will not provide significant relief for minimum wage earners.
HOW IS THE MINIMUM WAGE DETERMINED?
In Turkey, the minimum wage is determined by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission. This commission consists of a structure formed by the tripartite of workers, employers, and the government.
1. THE COMMISSION CONSISTS OF 15 MEMBERS
- There are a total of 15 people in the commission:
- 5 members representing the workers' side (Turkish Confederation of Trade Unions - Türk-İş)
- 5 members representing the employers' side (Turkish Confederation of Employers' Unions - TİSK)
- 5 members representing the government (Ministry of Labor and Social Security)
These members make decisions together.
2. THE COMMISSION MEETS IN JULY AND DECEMBER
In recent years, it is generally applied once a year; however, interim increases can be made depending on economic conditions.
- The commission usually meets:
- In December for the new year,
In some periods, it meets in July for interim increases.
3. WHAT DATA IS EXAMINED IN MEETINGS?
The criteria on which the commission is based:
- Inflation rate (TUIK data)
- Employer costs and operating expenses (TİSK reports)
- Cost of living (Türk-İş "hunger-poverty line" reports)
- Economic growth, unemployment rate, budget balances
- Economic presentations from the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the Central Bank are taken into account.
4. HOW IS THE DECISION MADE?
The minimum wage decision is made by a majority vote.
That is:
- The workers' side (Türk-İş)
- The employers' side (TİSK)
- The government side does not have to agree.
Most years, the workers' side remains abstained because they find the proposal insufficient; the decision passes with the votes of the government and employers.
The government vote is decisive, as the government side plays a critical role with 5 members.
5. PUBLISHED IN THE OFFICIAL GAZETTE AFTER THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL
After the commission makes a decision:
- The Minister of Labor announces the new figure
- The decision is sent for the President's approval
- It is published in the Official Gazette
- The new wage comes into effect as of January 1