19.12.2025 15:00
Critical statements have emerged regarding the minimum wage for 2026. İsa Karakaş, a former Chief Inspector of Social Security, noted that the figure anticipated by the government has largely become clear, stating that the increase in the minimum wage will not fall below 25%, while the upper limit could rise to 32%.
As the process for the minimum wage in 2026, which millions of workers are eagerly awaiting, continues, striking evaluations have emerged. While the second meeting of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission has passed, the date for the third meeting has not yet been finalized. The visits made by the Minister of Labor and Social Security, Vedat Işıkhan, to TÜRK-İŞ and HAK-İŞ before the meeting have led to intense lobbying traffic in Ankara.
CLAIM THAT "THE FIGURE HAS TAKEN SHAPE"
The absence of TÜRK-İŞ from the commission meetings has sparked discussions, while attention has focused on the government and the employer side. İsa Karakaş, a former Chief Inspector of SGK, stated that the minimum wage figure has largely taken shape. Speaking to TGRT News, Karakaş noted that the government and employer side have completed their cost calculations, indicating that a consensus is being approached. He expressed that there is a projected figure at the cabinet level and that the process is progressing within this framework.
EXPECTATIONS REVISED UPWARD
Karakaş mentioned that after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's involvement in the process, expectations regarding the rate of increase have been revised upward, emphasizing that it is not possible for worker and employer demands to fully overlap. According to Karakaş's calculations, at least a 45% increase is needed for the minimum wage to approach the hunger threshold, but he stated that this rate does not seem feasible under current economic conditions. Therefore, he expressed that the minimum wage to be determined in 2026 will remain below the hunger threshold.
Karakaş also drew attention to the impact of the minimum wage support provided by the state to employers on the budget, stating that increasing these supports could strain the balances of the Unemployment Insurance Fund.
ERDOĞAN IS SENSITIVE ON THIS ISSUE
Karakaş noted that President Erdoğan has shown sensitivity regarding the minimum wage, stating that the possibility of a 20% increase has now been removed from the agenda. According to Karakaş, it is not expected that the minimum wage increase for 2026 will fall below 25%, while the upper limit could rise to 32%. He expressed that, based on these rates, the minimum wage could approach 29,000 TL, and emphasized that at least a 36% increase would be needed for it to exceed 30,000 TL.
CALL TO EMPLOYERS TO "PUT YOUR HAND UNDER THE STONE"
Recently, while speaking at the 29th Ordinary General Assembly of TİSK at ATO Congresium, President Erdoğan stated, "I expect TİSK, which represents employers in the commission, to put their hands under the stone."
POSSIBLE INCREASE SCENARIOS
- 20% increase: 26,524 TL
- 25% increase: 27,630 TL
- 30% increase: 28,735 TL
- 35% increase: 29,840 TL
- 40% increase: 30,945 TL
The exact figure for the minimum wage will be clarified after the upcoming meetings of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission.