20.11.2025 21:30
The Director of the Earthquake Research Center at Dokuz Eylul University, Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, stated that there is a risk of another earthquake occurring in Sındırgı. Sözbilir said, "The aftershocks in Sındırgı have exceeded 20,000, and there has been a period of stagnation for the last 3-4 days. The aftershocks of magnitude 3-4 have stopped, which is not a good sign; it means that the fault is accumulating stress and that the tension is increasing."
Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, Director of the Earthquake Research and Application Center (DAUM) at Dokuz Eylul University (DEU), stated that there is a risk of another earthquake in Sındırgı, saying, "The aftershocks in Sındırgı have exceeded 20,000, and there has been a stagnation for the last 3-4 days. The aftershocks of magnitude 3-4 have stopped, which is not a good sign; it means that the fault is accumulating stress and the tension is increasing."
ATTENTION-GRABBING STATEMENT FROM HASAN SÖZBİLİR
As part of the 'Earthquake and İzmir' event within the Science Cafe Talks at DEU, Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, Director of the Earthquake Research and Application Center (DAUM), stated, "Buildings constructed in Turkey between 1975 and 1999 were built without understanding the ground. When an earthquake occurs, buildings constructed during that period are damaged and collapse. Our current building stock is earthquake-resistant. Because the vast majority of buildings were constructed before 1999. Today, there is an urban transformation issue; initially, the focus was on transforming slums, but later it became clear that urban transformation should be based on natural disasters after the 2020s."
"THE NUMBER OF FAULTS HAS INCREASED FROM 150 TO 485"
Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir pointed out that many new faults have formed in the last 21 years, stating, "In 1992, there were 150 faults in Turkey, and by 2013, this number increased to 485. We are approaching 2025, and in the last 10 years, our number of faults has increased, which is why the fault map is being updated and will be announced at the end of this year. The question 'What level has earthquake risk reached on a national scale in Turkey?' will be back on the agenda from scratch."
Prof. Dr. Sözbilir mentioned that DEU has created an 'Earthquake Master Plan' in collaboration with the İzmir Metropolitan Municipality, saying, "We need to know which of our buildings are not solid before an earthquake occurs; only then can we take precautions. The first Earthquake Master Plan in İzmir was made 25 years ago, and the building stock of the last 20 years is not included there. It needs to be renewed. We are at the final stage in this regard. We have received answers to the question of when the 13 faults in İzmir can produce an earthquake."
Prof. Dr. Sözbilir stated that it is wrong for many professors who are not experts in earthquakes to make evaluations about earthquakes. He said, "Buildings can be constructed anywhere as long as certain standards are maintained," and added, "A place we do not inhabit is above a fault. Because the fault tears the ground during an earthquake. Even if the building is made of steel, it collapses. The area above the fault should be closed to construction, but not all faults; only the areas above faults that can produce earthquakes in the near future should be closed."
"60% OF THE BUILDING STOCK IN İZMİR IS EARTHQUAKE-RESISTANT"
Prof. Dr. Sözbilir pointed out that 60% of the building stock in İzmir is not earthquake-resistant, stating, "Micro-zoning and building inventory studies are being conducted in Bornova, Karşıyaka, Seferihisar, and Balçova. For Turkey, we have about 60% of the building stock that is not earthquake-resistant. The faults in İzmir are scattered everywhere. We have 17 faults. If we include 4 faults whose activity has not been proven, we have 21 faults on land. There are just as many in the sea. In total, there are 40 faults. Faults can die, but dead faults can come back to life. Faults that are not on the fault map in Sındırgı are producing earthquakes," he said.
"FAULTS IN İZMİR ARE LAZY"
After the 6.1 magnitude earthquake on August 10 in Sındırgı, Prof. Dr. Sözbilir reported that the aftershocks have increased, saying, "Some faults inside the mountain have broken. The fault in Sındırgı that needed to break did not break. In field studies, we found that the mountains are filled with dead faults. Then a second earthquake occurred. Our studies show that there is a risk of another earthquake in Sındırgı. The region has been declared a disaster-affected area, and the government intervened. After the first earthquake, damaged houses were evacuated, and there were no deaths in the second earthquake. The goal is to reduce risk. Evacuating Sındırgı is not an option."
"AFTERSHOCKS IN SINDIRGI HAVE STOPPED, THIS IS NOT A GOOD SIGN"
Prof. Dr. Sözbilir stated that in both earthquakes in Sındırgı, the fault reached the surface, saying, "If the fault remains underground, there is no problem, but if the earthquake tears the surface, we start to die. The aftershocks in Sındırgı have exceeded 20,000, and there has been stagnation for the last 3-4 days. The aftershocks of magnitude 3-4 have stopped, which is not a good sign; it means that the fault is accumulating stress and the tension is increasing." He emphasized that there are nearly 30 faults in different regions and provinces in Turkey that are due to produce earthquakes, stating, "There are 29 other places like Marmara, and one of them is İzmir. The faults in İzmir are lazy faults. They accumulate stress over a long period and produce earthquakes in the long term; this is a chance."
"THE ENTIRE GULF IS SITTING IN THE LAP OF THE İZMİR FAULT"
Prof. Dr. Sözbilir stated that the most dangerous fault for İzmir is the İzmir fault, saying, "The most casualties will occur due to the İzmir fault. Because it goes north towards Güzelbahçe, Balçova, Narlıdere, Konak, Altındağ, and Pınarbaşı. The entire gulf is sitting in the lap of that fault. If the İzmir fault activates, there will be at least 25-30 thousand casualties. The İzmir fault is not likely to break in the near future. Because it last produced an earthquake in 1688, the earthquake production interval of that fault is at least a thousand years. Therefore, there is no possibility of the İzmir fault producing a destructive earthquake in the near future. The Tuzla fault's time to produce an earthquake has come; it could reach 7.2, and the most dangerous fault is Tuzla. The Seferihisar fault has not produced an earthquake for 3,000 years, and the Gülbahçe fault last produced an earthquake in 1289. It has been a thousand years since the last earthquake of the Gülbahçe fault. In the next 100 years, the İzmir Institute of Technology may need to change its campus and move to more solid areas within the campus," he said.
"12 EARTHQUAKE WARNING STATIONS WILL BE ESTABLISHED IN İZMİR"
Prof. Dr. Sözbilir stated that all EVKAs in İzmir are solid. He announced that they will establish 12 earthquake warning stations in İzmir within 1-2 months.